ROME, Italy / AsiaWire.IO / – World food commodity prices eased in October as cheaper cereals, dairy and meat outweighed a fourth straight monthly rise in sugar, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on Friday. Its Food Price Index averaged 133.9 points, down 1.2% from a revised 135.6 points in September. The index was still 5.9% higher than in October last year. It remained 16.4% below the peak reached in March 2022.
Sugar was the main exception to the decline. FAO’s sugar price index rose 6.6% month on month and was 28.8% higher than a year earlier, its highest level since December 2024. Heavy rain disrupted cane harvesting and crushing in Brazil’s Centre-South region. Concerns over the 2026/27 crop in India, the European Union and Thailand also lifted prices, FAO said.
Vegetable oil prices edged up 0.3%. Soybean oil reached its highest level since late 2022, driven by strong demand from the biofuel industry and seasonally lower supplies from South America. Sunflower oil prices recovered from multi-month lows because of tight export availability in the Black Sea region. Rapeseed oil prices moved lower over the month.
Grain markets cool after rally
The cereal price index fell 4.5%, led by wheat, which declined after four months of gains. Weak international demand, better crop prospects in Argentina and expectations that Black Sea export constraints could ease all weighed on prices. Maize also eased from a three-year high reached in September amid harvest pressure in the United States. Rice bucked the trend, with the All Rice Price Index up 1.6% on harvest delays, bad weather and higher costs.
Meat prices slipped 1.2%, though they remained slightly above year-earlier levels. Pig, sheep and beef prices fell, while poultry prices held broadly steady. The dairy index declined 1.1%, as ample supplies and weak buying interest pushed down butter and cheese prices. Milk powder prices, however, increased during the month.
Food aid needs persist
In its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, FAO forecast 2026 world cereal output at 2,999 million tonnes, the second-highest on record after 2025. Global rice production is set to decline 2.5% to 552 million tonnes. Cereal trade in 2026/27 is forecast to drop 3.3% to 507.7 million tonnes, with wheat trade down 8.6%. The global stocks-to-use ratio is put at 32.4%. Global cereal utilization in 2026/27 is forecast to rise 0.2% to 2,971 million tonnes. The Agricultural Market Information System said markets remain well supplied, though weather and policy uncertainty cloud the outlook.
FAO’s latest Crop Prospects report said 41 countries and territories require external food assistance, including 31 in Africa. Cereal production in low-income food-deficit countries is forecast at about 126.5 million tonnes, roughly 2% above 2025. Conflict and insecurity remain the main drivers of severe acute food insecurity, while El Niño weather shocks are worsening conditions in several subregions. Rising fertiliser costs linked to the Iran war have also put African harvests at risk. FAO has also pushed for new climate and food security funding.